中国若＂躺平＂代价有多大?研究模拟数据: 上亿(2)-中国卫生政策研究

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中国若＂躺平＂代价有多大?研究模拟数据: 上亿(2)

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编辑：苏展

估算结果显示，在奥密克戎流行高峰期，预计全国需要157万张呼系统疾病病床，低于我国现有数量310万张；但重症监护病房（ICU）床位需求高峰（100万）将达到我国现有ICU床位数量（64000）的15.6倍，且ICU床位短缺期将持续44天。

Zheng added that more than 90 percent of the infected are above 60 with underlying diseases.他还称，90%以上的感染者年龄在60岁以上，且患有基础疾病。

The scientists found that the level of immunity induced by the March 2022 vaccination campaign would be insufficient to prevent an Omicron wave. They said such a wave would exceed critical care capacity, with intensive care unit peak demand at 15.6 times the existing capacity, and cause about 1.55 million deaths.科学家表明，截至2022年3月，中国的疫苗接种水平形成的免疫屏障并不能有效防止奥密克戎感染高峰，重症监护病房峰值将是现有数量的15.6倍，可能导致约155万人死亡。

The research team developed an age-structured stochastic compartmental susceptible-latent-infectious-removed-susceptible (SLIRS) model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission calibrated on the initial growth phase for the 2022 Omicron outbreak in Shanghai.该研究团队开发了一种基于2022年上海奥密克戎疫情初期增长阶段校准的，分年龄新冠传播的易感-潜伏-感染-移除-易感（SLIRS）模型。

Li Bin, vice minister of the National Health Commission, said at a news briefing that China has stuck to the "dynamic zero" policy with targeted measures over the past two years. Successful experiences have proved that the policy is the best choice for China to maintain social and economic development.国家卫生健康委副主任李斌在新闻发布会上表示，中国在过去两年中坚持“动态清零”政策，采取了有针对性的防控措施。成功经验证明，这一政策是中国保持社会经济发展的最佳选择。

The model also considers age-specific vaccine coverage data, vaccine efficacy against different clinical endpoints, waning immunity, antiviral therapies, and non-pharmaceutical interventions.该模型还考虑了以下因素：特定年龄的疫苗覆盖率数据，疫苗对不同临床终点的保护力，疫苗保护力减弱，不同抗病毒疗法和非药物干预措施。

'Dynamic zero' does not mean zero infections“动态清零”不是绝对的“零感染”

A vaccination regimen consisting of three shots is an ideal immune process, according to Zheng. "It's about 98 percent effective to prevent severe symptoms after three shots, no matter what kind of vaccine you're taking."郑中伟称，三剂接种新冠疫苗是最佳免疫程序，“无论你接种的是哪种疫苗，三剂接种以后预防重症的效果都达到98%”。

As of May 5, over 1.25 billion people in China, or 88.74 percent of the country's total population, had been fully inoculated against COVID-19. Nearly 216 million of them are over 60.截至5月5日，中国已有超过12.5亿人（占全国总人口的88.74%）完成了新冠疫苗全程接种。其中近2.16亿人超60岁。

A senior citizen receives a dose of COVID-19 vaccine at a mobile COVID-19 vaccination site in Beijing, April 9, 2022. [Photo/Xinhua]

'Dynamic-zero' policy key to curb COVID-19“动态清零”是中国防控疫情的制胜“法宝”

Li stressed that "dynamic zero" does not mean zero infections. With the threats of Omicron and other COVID-19 variants, China cannot guarantee that no individuals will be infected with the novel coronavirus in the short term, but it is able to quickly identify and contain an outbreak once it is detected to prevent the virus from causing greater harm to the wider population.李斌强调，“动态清零”不是绝对的“零感染”，面对奥密克戎等变异株的挑战，我们还没有能力保证不出现一例本土病例，但中国的防控措施使得一旦发现疫情，可以迅速识别并控制疫情发展，防止病毒对更多人群造成更大伤害。

文章来源：《中国卫生政策研究》网址: http://www.zgwszcyjzz.cn/zonghexinwen/2022/0518/765.html